Putin set a condition, and then... a big mistake

Putin set a condition, and then... a big mistake

As they state, they will do so after the arrival of additional mobilized Russian troops and forces withdrawn from Kherson.

According to ISW, Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region "will come under heavy pressure" and Ukraine will likely have to redeploy some troops to defend against these offensives.

"The Russians are unlikely to make significant operational gains despite their renewed efforts, although they could eventually capture Bakhmut at enormous cost," ISW writes.

"Putin probably allowed Surovikin to withdraw from western Kherson on the condition that he seize the rest of the Donetsk region, using Russian forces from western Kherson as well as newly arrived mobilized soldiers.

This observation, made by Andriy Zagorodniuk, president of the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies, is the most likely explanation for the continuation of the intensity of Russian offensive operations first around Bakhmut and then in the southwest around the Vuhledar region, which began on October 28," ISW writes.

Putin benefits from it?

"A cessation or prolonged slowing of combat operations in Ukraine over the next few months is very unlikely, and any attempt at a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities at this time would overwhelmingly favor Russia. The Russians are emphatically not attempting to establish and strengthen defensive positions all along the line but are rather renewing offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast. Both sides are already fighting in very muddy conditions. They will not likely stop fighting when winter freezes the ground and makes it even more conducive to large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare. Combat is more likely to intensify than to slacken as temperatures drop."

"Putin should desire such a ceasefire in his own interest. He should recognize that he needs to give his forces time to recover and allow the reservists flowing into the theater time to integrate into their units, train up, and prepare for serious combat".

"Putin should want to stop the Ukrainians from capitalizing on the emotional lift of their recent victories. The fact that Putin continues to whip his generals to offensives in these circumstances is thus a grave error from a military perspective", ISW writes.

"It likely results from whatever psychological factors led Putin to order the invasion in the first place but also increasingly from Putin’s need to show his toughness to the hardline faction led, at least in public, by Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin".

"Putin is unlikely to be willing to seek a ceasefire, therefore, unless it is accompanied by tremendous Ukrainian or international concessions", ISW concluded.