United States and its allies carefully weigh; they'll hardly give Kyiv what it wants

United States and its allies carefully weigh; they'll hardly give Kyiv what it wants

The talks, in which Ukrainians are directly involved, are at a very early stage because it is not clear to US, Western and Ukrainian officials that the Russian talks are more than a smokescreen.

But it is unlikely, they noted, that the United States and its allies will eventually offer Ukraine the kind of legally binding protection it seeks.

In peace talks with Russia in Istanbul this week, Ukrainian negotiators suggested that Ukraine might be willing to commit to neutrality when it comes to NATO. But at the same time, they want Western countries, including the United States and Great Britain, to guarantee with ratified agreements that they will protect Ukraine if Russia invades again in the future.

Such an agreement would reflect Article V of NATO, which says that an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all members. The main impetus for Russia's invasion was the desire to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO; it is unclear whether another collective security agreement would be more appropriate for Moscow. As a way for Russia to keep its face in the negotiations, the Ukrainians indicated that such security guarantees will not apply to the separatist territories in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

"We insist that this should be an agreement on security guarantees signed and ratified (by parliaments) to avoid a repeat of the Budapest Memorandum," said Ukrainian MP Davyd Arakhamia, Ukraine's chief negotiator with Russia.

The memorandum is an agreement between the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia signed in 1994, which forced Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for protection from the signatories. Ukrainian officials have criticized the agreement as useless and even harmful - security obligations were not legally binding, and many of those nuclear weapons were given to Russia under the agreement, strengthening its arsenal.

A Western official told CNN that "everything but full commitment to Ukraine's defense will not be enough for Ukrainians", and some officials of the Biden administration admit that another agreement such as the Budapest Memorandum would not be useful. A number of U.S. and Western officials have taken a skeptical approach to potential security guarantees, and many say it is too early to discuss any unforeseen situations as negotiations move forward.

Some US officials were surprised by Ukraine's declaration after the Istanbul talks that Western security guarantees could be on the table.

"We are in constant discussion with Ukrainians about ways we can help them be sovereign and secure," White House Communications Director Katherine Joan Bedingfield said this week. But there is nothing specific about the security guarantees I could talk to at this point.

Other European officials said they similarly wait to hear more from Ukrainians before committing to anything in public. And the American official said that the talks with Ukraine are still in the earliest stages about the contours so that the security arrangement could look like. A Type V commitment, however, is unlikely given that the United States and many of its allies, including Britain, are still reluctant to put their troops in direct confrontation with Russian forces.

The theory that Russia would not attack Ukraine seems to have Western security guarantees and still poses a greater risk than the United States and its allies are willing to take.

"Ukraine is not a member of NATO," Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab told the BBC on Wednesday when asked if Britain was ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine's independence.

"We will not engage in a direct military confrontation with Russia," he said. Membership in the European Union was discussed as a solution. Several European countries, including Poland, Latvia, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, have called for Ukraine's EU accession, and believe membership could provide the country with some protection. "It would be difficult for Russia to attack an EU member state," said one European official.

"Because it could automatically mean much more support for that country."

Meanwhile, NATO members have not yet had strong discussions within the alliance on Ukraine's security proposal, an EU official said, as they still do not believe the Russians are negotiating with Ukraine in good faith and that any possible agreement backed by Western security commitments would be quickly disrupted.

Russia must first show that it is serious in withdrawing and commit to allowing Ukraine to maintain a strong army, essentially giving up on the demand for Ukraine to "demilitarize", the official said. But above all, the official added, Ukraine must first win the war and be supported.

Anastasia Radina, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, said that Ukraine was looking for "feasible security guarantees, and not just another Budapest Memorandum".

"Let me just remind you that according to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine destroyed parts of our nuclear arsenal, but a lot of it was handed over to Russia," Radina said.

"Where did that take us? Hearing now that the world can't do anything to Russia because it has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. But we were pushed to contribute to that arsenal."

Reiterating to the European official, Radina said that the essence is that "before talks on security guarantees are started, we must actually ensure that Ukraine wins this war." "What helps on the ground is weapons," she added.

"And we asked for these weapons to be delivered immediately. If possible yesterday. The best option would be overnight. This is an emergency."