Russia has been surrounded on all sides; They renounce military neutrality

Russia has been surrounded on all sides; They renounce military neutrality

Skepticism about NATO membership wane in Sweden and Finland as a consequence of the Russian military operation in Ukraine.

A recent public opinion poll shows that now 41 percent of Swedes are in favor of joining the Western military alliance, 35 percent are against, while the rest are insecure. This is the first time that support for membership is greater than opposition.

In Finland, which shares as many as 1.340 kilometers of border with Russia, the turn is even more radical.

"For the sake of context, lately, only 24 to 28 percent of people were in favor of NATO membership. We now have a majority of 53 percent in favor. The change is astonishing in just a few weeks", said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the Finnish National Coalition Party.

In Sweden, on the other hand, the party scene is so complex that a request to join NATO still seems unlikely. "You have right-leaning parties that are for NATO, red-greens that are against, but also the right-wing extremist party of the Swedish Democrats who are also against," Ana Wislander, head of the Institute for Security and Development in Stockholm, told DW.

Close ties with NATO and the United States

Two Scandinavian countries rejected neutrality after the Cold War, when they joined the European Union. But official military neutrality has been maintained, although co-operation with NATO has intensified in the last decade.

"There are deep bilateral ties with the United States. There is also a trilateral agreement between Sweden, Finland and the United States", recalls Zebulon Karlander, a military analyst and author of "Strategic Elections - The Future of Swedish Security".

Stockholm sends troops to military exercises with NATO members and, conversely, invites members, especially America, to its military exercises.

"I think we need to look at things from a different angle now, and maybe move to a higher level," Vanhanen said, suggesting it was time for Scandinavian countries to join NATO. "I think it's fair to say that Russia is a military threat to Finland at the moment."

Last week, NATO decided to share intelligence with Stockholm and Helsinki on the situation in Ukraine. Moscow is threatening to "respond" if the two countries join NATO, which has met with condemnation in Sweden and Finland.

"The debate over NATO accession in Sweden and Finland is taking place only because Russia is threatening and harassing its neighbors", Karlander said.

It is already a precedent that Sweden sent 5.000 anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. "We have not provided military assistance to that extent since the Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union in 1939," Karlander recalls.

Finland sent 2.500 assault rifles, ammunition, 1.500 disposable anti-tank guns, and 70.000 military portions of food.

When will they join NATO?

In February, Ulf Christerson, one of the leaders of the Swedish opposition, predicted that his country would join the military alliance within five years. But now the war in Ukraine could heat up the debate.

However, that does not mean that the matter will be accelerated. Because, as Ana Wislander explains, the upcoming parliamentary elections will bring "further polarization" on this issue.

Henry Vanhanen has a bolder prognosis as far as Finland is concerned. "I think it will happen in a few months, in a year at most."