CNN: Checkmate without firing a single bullet

CNN: Checkmate without firing a single bullet

At the same time, the West is preparing an aggressive package of sanctions if Putin decides to seize another territory in Ukraine.

Tensions are now at their highest level since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and sent "little green people" to Ukraine's Donbas region. A complete land invasion of Ukraine is now a real possibility. But Putin does not care about the threats of the West, because he is in an enviable position and can make the following moves, writes CNN.

Europe is in an energy crisis and has small reserves, and with 40 percent of EU gas imports coming from Russia, the Kremlin has already shown its ability to check the West's toughest sanctions by limiting production and potential blackouts across the European continent.

Putin's game: USSR 2.0

Putin's game is USSR 2.0, CNN further states. His next moves come at a delicate geopolitical moment, with the West fearing an invasion of Ukraine, colonization of Belarus, an energy crisis across Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel retiring as EU chief negotiator and concerns over US President Joe Biden's confusing foreign policy.

If you doubt Putin's plans to turn back time, just read his essay with more than 5.000 words about why Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are doomed without closer integration with Mother Russia. Or consider his bold demands on Friday for a veto on who joins NATO and restrictions on the deployment of troops and weapons in any country that joined NATO after 1997, CNN's analysis points out.

Without firing a bullet, Putin managed to send the West into collective panic, or at least into a position where they feel the need to appease an aging autocrat. In the last four months, and especially between September 7 and December 5, according to Western intelligence sources, Putin has accumulated tens of thousands of soldiers and heavy weapons about 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. U.S. intelligence reports point to a build-up of up to 175.000 troops, enough for a quick and immediate incursion.

Another kidnapping would increase the territory occupied in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and sent fighters it supports to the industrialized eastern region of Donbas in Ukraine.

Hybrid war

With so much military power, Putin could target a land link between Russia and Crimea itself, a move that could be devised in part to free up water resources blocked by Ukraine in the North Crimean Canal, which once met 85 percent of the water's needs on the peninsula. The Kremlin's actions are not limited to Ukraine. Russia has been engaged in a hybrid war with the West, including hacking one of America's largest power lines, spreading misinformation about coronavirus vaccines, meddling in US elections and neutralizing opponents in foreign territory.

Putin recently opened another front with the West by forming a military alliance with a man often referred to as "Europe's last dictator", Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Encouraged by the support of the Kremlin, Lukashenko acted with impunity by imprisoning opponents, forcing Ryanair's plane with a political opponent on it to make a forced landing and sending migrants to the border with the EU.

However, only on Thursday, European leaders responded to Putin's tactics of harassment and intimidation by trying to push him towards the negotiating table. That could be a sign that the EU fears that even if it does not sign new harsh sanctions on Russia in the event of an invasion, Putin could respond by stopping gas supplies.

Fear and cohesion

Perhaps not coincidentally, this week Russia and China announced joint work on a closed trading network that would reduce dependence on the international financial system and limit transactions in US currency.

At home, Putin has shaken the power of the state through fear and cohesion, largely by banning civil society organizations, imprisoning prominent opponents and threatening Russian citizens working for foreign embassies.

How many tools are left in the diplomatic arsenal of the West? A little depressing. But some options still exist: banning Russians from traveling, blocking multimillion-dollar real estate deals that have turned London and Miami into playgrounds for rich Russians, and even immediately expelling Russian citizens from Western countries. In other words, everything that is needed except a direct military conflict, CNN concludes, as Index.hr reports.