Putin cornered?

Putin cornered?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Kiev as part of new efforts by the administration of President Joe Biden to show support for Ukraine, after the recent accumulation of Russian troops on the country's border. Blinken met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and emphasized America's commitment to this Eastern European state.

"We are monitoring the situation very, very closely and I can tell you, Mr. President, that we stand by you as strongly as our partners do," Blinken said, pointing out that although most Russian troops withdrew, "significant forces" remained. Blinken's visit to Ukraine is without a doubt a calculated move of the Biden administration to the Russian deployment of almost 100.000 soldiers along the border between the two countries in April, "Business Insider" writes.

Although Putin ordered the withdrawal a few weeks later, the move drew condemnation from the international community and led to weeks of heightened tensions and fears of invasion. It was these tensions that led Biden to send U.S. diplomat to Kiev.

Blinken, who was deputy national security adviser from 2013-2015, and Deputy Secretary of State 2015-2017, is already familiar with Putin's tactics. He played an important role in the Barack Obama administration's response to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. But sending Blinken as Secretary of State to the field, sends a clear message to Putin and the Kremlin.

Many rejected Russia's move as a mere rattling of weapons, but after more than two decades of autocratic rule, Putin's political arsenal has worn out. The growing domestic opposition, led by Alexei Navalny, the weak economy and poor management of the health crisis have increased pressure on Putin and his loyalists.

The consequence is that Putin is using the levers of his propaganda machinery to remove any challenge to his government, and nowhere has this proved more obvious than in his address to the nation before the Russian parliament last month.

Putin used the opportunity, as Business Insider writes, to twist his "hits", spiced with anti-Western rhetoric (including covert threats and ultimatums) in the hope of intensifying the climate of discontent among Russians towards Europe and America. He warned the West not to cross the "red lines" of Russia.

"If someone interprets our good intentions as indifference or weakness, they should know that Russia's response will be quick and sharp," Putin said.

But he did not even mention Navalny or the opposition, despite protests and arrests before, during and after the speech. According to the New York Times, Russian authorities arrested "dozens of opposition activists" before Putin's speech, including Navalny's allies Kira Yarmush and Ljubov Sobol. Navalny, who ended a 24-day hunger strike in late April, remains in a Russian prison despite mass calls for his release. Demonstrations for the imprisoned opposition leader were held in several cities across Russia during and after Putin's speech. Although opposition campaigns have always enjoyed the support of younger, more progressive members of society, some reports show that support for Navalny is growing.

This support will continue to grow as Putin increases pressure. The BBC reported that the prosecutor ordered the closure of all support offices for Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). The report indicates that the Kremlin could mark his foundation as a terrorist organization, which would enable Putin to arrest Navalny's supporters and freeze his property. Growing pressure on Navalny says it all. His near-fatal "Novichok" poisoning in August 2020 put Putin on "thin ice" in international waters, while the flames spread at home. Since then, Putin's steps have become increasingly unstable, and "Business Insider" states that the Russian leader is trying to go on the offensive when he is cornered.

Currently, most of the Russian military equipment is still standing on the Ukrainian border since the operation in April. Although the number of soldiers has been sharply reduced, it is not a problem for the Russian authorities to redeploy them along the border. Perhaps the past military parade on the occasion of Victory Day showed enough in that sense.