Irish poll: "No" camp in lead over EU treaty referendum

Irish voters may torpedo the EU's reform treaty after a dramatic swing in public opinion put the "no" camp in the lead for the first time. The survey in the Irish Times newspaper said 35 percent of voters intend to reject the treaty in Thursday's referendum, while 30 percent would vote yes. The rest said they were still unsure or did not plan to vote. Irish poll: "No" camp in lead over EU treaty referendum The painstakingly negotiated Treaty of Lisbon seeks to reform EU structures in line with the bloc's near-doubling of members since 2004. Most of the proposed reforms were contained in the EU's failed constitution, which voters in France and the Netherlands shot down in 2005. The EU's 26 other members are ratifying the document through their national parliaments and administrations, but Ireland requires all EU treaties to be ratified by referendum. This means Ireland is the only member seriously threatening to scuttle the complex document. The poll of 1,000 voters, which had an error margin of three percentage points, suggested that the "no" camp had attracted the vast majority of undecided voters over the past week — and even wooed away some previous "yes" voters. Previous polls had shown those intending to vote "yes" outnumbering the treaty's opponents by nearly two to one. The most common reason cited by voters for backing the "no" campaign is that they will not vote for something they don't understand. The treaty would reduce the number of members of the European Commission, boost the authority of its president and foreign policy chief and increase policy areas in which decisions could be taken by majority votes rather than requiring unanimous approval. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the poll demonstrated that the public was being confused by a wide range of fringe anti-EU pressure groups. They have plastered Dublin with posters warning that the treaty will permit other EU countries to force Ireland to do various things against its will, including raise its business tax rates and legalize abortion. He said all the extreme claims were nonsense. Lenihan said Ireland wielded particularly strong influence when negotiating the contents of the Lisbon treaty, particularly during Ireland's 2004 presidency. He said one hope of the "no" camp — that Ireland should reject the treaty to negotiate a better deal — risked achieving the opposite. Other EU states in renewed negotiations "may make more demands of us than were made on the last occasion," Lenihan said. Ireland's power to set its own tax rates and decide whether to contribute troops to EU peacekeeping work "were safeguarded in this treaty," he said. "All of those matters would come up for grabs again."

Irish poll: "No" camp in lead over EU treaty referendum

The painstakingly negotiated Treaty of Lisbon seeks to reform EU structures in line with the bloc's near-doubling of members since 2004. Most of the proposed reforms were contained in the EU's failed constitution, which voters in France and the Netherlands shot down in 2005.

The EU's 26 other members are ratifying the document through their national parliaments and administrations, but Ireland requires all EU treaties to be ratified by referendum. This means Ireland is the only member seriously threatening to scuttle the complex document.

The poll of 1,000 voters, which had an error margin of three percentage points, suggested that the "no" camp had attracted the vast majority of undecided voters over the past week — and even wooed away some previous "yes" voters. Previous polls had shown those intending to vote "yes" outnumbering the treaty's opponents by nearly two to one.

The most common reason cited by voters for backing the "no" campaign is that they will not vote for something they don't understand.

The treaty would reduce the number of members of the European Commission, boost the authority of its president and foreign policy chief and increase policy areas in which decisions could be taken by majority votes rather than requiring unanimous approval.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the poll demonstrated that the public was being confused by a wide range of fringe anti-EU pressure groups. They have plastered Dublin with posters warning that the treaty will permit other EU countries to force Ireland to do various things against its will, including raise its business tax rates and legalize abortion. He said all the extreme claims were nonsense.

Lenihan said Ireland wielded particularly strong influence when negotiating the contents of the Lisbon treaty, particularly during Ireland's 2004 presidency. He said one hope of the "no" camp — that Ireland should reject the treaty to negotiate a better deal — risked achieving the opposite.

Other EU states in renewed negotiations "may make more demands of us than were made on the last occasion," Lenihan said.

Ireland's power to set its own tax rates and decide whether to contribute troops to EU peacekeeping work "were safeguarded in this treaty," he said. "All of those matters would come up for grabs again."