Collective responsibility failed, endangering collective immunity in Serbia

Collective responsibility failed, endangering collective immunity in Serbia

Primarius Radmilo Petrović, an epidemiologist, cannot enhance this projection with an estimate of the progression that will increase the number of newly infected, of which there were 145 on Tuesday, and whether we could have several hundred infected a day by the end of this month.

He told Novosti that the mathematical model in the field of biology cannot be considered reliable, but he is also sure that we are not in a very favorable situation - both because of the characteristics of the new delta strain and because of the delay in the vaccination process.

That is why Dr Petrović, however, is convinced that we will have a mass illness again before the fall.

"Delta virus is more resistant than the original, a smaller amount of virus is enough to cause infection, and it's faster. All this, after decades of experience in epidemiology and virology, tells me that we will not manage all summer with, conditionally speaking, a small number of newly infected on a daily basis", says Dr Petrović for "Novosti". Whichever population it enters, the delta becomes dominant very quickly, so it is expected that the strain whose presence was proven on July 1, will overtake the hitherto predominant British variant of the coronavirus.

"How this fourth epidemic wave will develop depends on the virus itself, which is definitely more virulent and aggressive now, but also on the medium it encounters. It is not the same whether it will encounter a population of 60-70 percent protected or unvaccinated. Temperature, as we saw last summer, has no direct effect on the virus itself, but if we gather in air-conditioned rooms, it will certainly contribute to the spread of the virus", Dr Petrovic concluded.

Under such circumstances, with about 100 newly infected people a day, the epidemiological "lump" should be prevented from rolling, he is convinced.

"For a start, better epidemiological control should be introduced at sports events and among tourists, whether they are foreigners who come to us, or locals who return from summer vacations," Dr Petrovic believes.

"A model must be found to speed up vaccination, because we are at a dead end. Our people, when they don't want something, then they are stubborn. I see that in my family as well: my 22-year-old grandson trusts his master that he should not be vaccinated more than me, although I'm an expert in epidemiology for more than four decades", he added.