Chaos starts, if Serbia agrees - that equals capitulation

Chaos starts, if Serbia agrees - that equals capitulation

According to these predictions, the goal of the expected diplomatic storm, which threatens to swarm over our country, would be formulated as adjusting Serbia's foreign policy with the EU and the West, or in other words - imposition of sanctions on Moscow, Novosti writes.

According to experts on domestic and international circumstances, Belgrade has not yet made any gesture that could indicate a change in its foreign policy course. Even if that happened, a formal decision on it would have to wait for the formation of a new government, because the existing government would not have the legitimacy for such a far-reaching decision. This issue could be on the agenda only in September, which is the deadline for the forces that secure the majority in the parliament to take over the levers of political power.

Therefore, Serbia is certainly not in favor of the outbreak of the Ukrainian war and Russia's becoming the closed "fortress in the East". An additional problem is that any predictions of future moves of global players in this dramatic game, as well as its outcome, are almost impossible.

Bojan Milisavljevic, a professor of international public law at the Faculty of Law in Belgrade, claims that Western pressure on Belgrade will certainly strengthen the longer the war lasts. He points out that our state will have more and more problems to maintain the existing foreign policy position.

"Our policy on the conflict in Ukraine so far has been extremely balanced and wise, and its sustainability will be most affected by the situation on the ground. A possible change of attitude regarding the introduction of sanctions against Russia would be of far-reaching significance, and as many factors from the domestic political scene as possible should take part in it", he says.

According to him, it would be extremely incorrect if the current government undertook to change the state course, so such a major issue would have to be among the domestic tasks of the new political set.

"That could be a suitable formal reason for prolonging the decision and neutralizing the pressure, which will certainly be stronger," the interlocutor of Novosti noted.

Even if it wants to, Serbia can hardly join the sanctions against Russia at this moment, because its authorities do not have the necessary legitimacy for such major decisions. Professor of constitutional law Bogoljub Milosavljevic explains that it would be extremely unusual for such dramatic moves to be made in the interregnum.

"As a rule, outgoing governments perform only urgent and necessary tasks. The decision to impose sanctions on a foreign country would be controversial in terms of legitimacy, and would not be legal. Domestic regulations do not specify 'technical' competencies, but there is no doubt that defining an extreme turn towards Russia, which would include economic or other sanctions, should not happen at this time", Milosavljevic said.

However, it is not a dilemma for political analyst Dragomir Andjelković that Brussels and Washington will try to force Serbia to change its stance towards Russia, and thus trace its foreign policy.

The West certainly planned to increase the pressure on Serbia. However, the election results raise the question of whether this is possible at all. The vote clearly showed that the majority of the electorate has strong feelings for Russia. This is true not only for the parties that entered the parliament on their Russophile policy, but also for the SNS, which also has officials and members in its ranks who share this view", said Andjelkovic.

He has no doubt that neither the incumbent nor the future Serbian government will impose sanctions on Russia: "It would be a capitulation. And that would mean that we will pay a high price on the issue of Serbia's struggle to preserve Kosovo and Metohija, as well as to defend the status of Republika Srpska".