"Kosovo tests U.S.-Russian relations"
The Kosovo issue will be the first test of the new relations between Moscow and Washington, Stratfor reports.
Tuesday, 12.06.2007.
14:51
"Kosovo tests U.S.-Russian relations"
The agency, founded in 1996 and producing global intelligence, analysis, and forecasting, says that the United States had promised Kosovo its independence, adding, however, that Russia will attempt to prevent Washington from delivering.“As Russia, France and Germany assume new roles in the international community, the Kosovo issue has gotten caught between the competing interests of these powers and those of the United States,” the agency says.
The analysis entitled, “Kosovo divides the international community”, notes that both Serbs and Albanians are growing impatient over Kosovo’s future status, while the province’s Albanians seem ready to declare unilateral independence.
“The biggest roadblock for Kosovo’s independence is Russia—more for Moscow's own reasons than anything else,” the analysis says. “Russia has made [it] clear that it will not accept Kosovo's independence under any circumstances.”
Though French President Nicolas Sarkozy proposed postponing the Kosovo decision for another six months at a recent G8 summit in Germany, Putin immediately rejected the idea, as did German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
“This came as no surprise since Merkel is intent on using the Kosovo issue to cement her legacy as EU president and is pushing to fast-track Serbia's EU membership talks as Belgrade's reward for letting Kosovo go,” Stratfor reports.
“Russia is not simply unwilling to compromise; it is actively campaigning for support for Serbia. Putin personally invited Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Koštunica to St. Petersburg after the G8 conference.”
“During the visit, Putin guaranteed Koštunica that Russia will veto Kosovo’s independence, and he vowed to help Serbia with its security, energy and economic needs,” the analysis continues.
Over the past century, Moscow has promoted itself as the protector of Serbia, however, when the Kosovo war began in 1999, Russia had neither the political clout nor the internal stability to stand up to the West, according to Stratfor.
“But things have changed. During the past few months, Russia has made every effort to demonstrate to the international community that it is stable and strong enough to re-emerge as a global power,” the analysis concludes.
“Kosovo: One square in U.S.-Russia chess game”
It is quite possible that U.S. President George Bush’s open support for Kosovo’s independence at a time when Russia was against it, meant nothing, British Balkan ananlyst Tim Judah told BBC Monday, adding that it may only serve to increase pressure over the issue.“It was a widespread belief that the G8 summit would be crucial for Kosovo, and that Bush and Putin would come to an agreement that might lead to a resolution of the issue. Now, all eyes are on the forthcoming meeting of the two presidents at the beginning of July,” he said.
“It is quite possible that Bush’s speech in Tirana served to build up pressure ahead of the meeting. It is also possible that he decided to be polite among the Albanians and say it was high time to solve the Kosovo issue,” Judah said.
He reminded that Kosovo was only one of the unresolved issues between Washington and Moscow.
“I believe they could easily agree on Kosovo in a friendly atmosphere during their July meeting, set to take place in the Bush family residence in Maine, if they manage to reach consent over, for example, U.S. missile shield or Iran’s nuclear program first,” Judah explained.
“It should not be forgotten that Kosovo constitutes only one square in a game of chess between Washington, Moscow and the European Union,” Judah underscored at the end of his interview with the BBC.
Komentari 13
Pogledaj komentare